I'm going to start this blog again mainly to keep track of my thought process in the realm of trading and speculations.
The current market focus is on "fiscal cliff" of US government, it's creating a lot of uncertainties in the market place. From the technical stand point, it looks to be in a holding pattern after the correction in November. This could be an opportunity to buy favorable stocks.
Watch List: FB, NFLX - both stocks have came down to a level where a support is conceivable. Looking for opportunities to buy.
Holding list: TSLA, LNKD, AMZN, YELP
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Monday, February 15, 2010
Year of the Tiger
I have been focus on trading FX since the beginning of this year. The goal is to find a reproducable consistency in my performance, then improve and build upon it.
January was my first profitable month, though the gain was not worth bragging about.
The excel dada showed that I don't do well when my daily number of trades exceed 10. I still have trouble maintening my stop losses and controling averaging, which lead to bigger loss than gains. Fortunately, I seem to get batter at taking profits with decent reward to risk ratio than last year.
With 2 more weeks left in Feburary, my plan is to strictly enforce my stops to see how it will work out for the month.
January was my first profitable month, though the gain was not worth bragging about.
The excel dada showed that I don't do well when my daily number of trades exceed 10. I still have trouble maintening my stop losses and controling averaging, which lead to bigger loss than gains. Fortunately, I seem to get batter at taking profits with decent reward to risk ratio than last year.
With 2 more weeks left in Feburary, my plan is to strictly enforce my stops to see how it will work out for the month.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
2009 year end update
I've been away from the market for almost the entire holiday season. The lack of liquidity and volatility don't provide a good environment for day trading.
I've decided to focus on being discipline with stops and more patient with entry. My goal is 60 pips per day, which would translate to 15 pips/trade for 4 trades or 20 pips/day for 3 trades.
My stop loss for 15 pips gain would be 5 pips at 3:1 RR. My maximum number of trade per day should be 6 and maximum loss should be 3 consecutive stops.
Let's see how this work out.
Happy New Year! 2010 here we come!
I've decided to focus on being discipline with stops and more patient with entry. My goal is 60 pips per day, which would translate to 15 pips/trade for 4 trades or 20 pips/day for 3 trades.
My stop loss for 15 pips gain would be 5 pips at 3:1 RR. My maximum number of trade per day should be 6 and maximum loss should be 3 consecutive stops.
Let's see how this work out.
Happy New Year! 2010 here we come!
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Let's end this streak with more awareness...
SPY: O - 107.03 / H: 107.39 / L: 106.16 / C: 106.42 / TA: downward, at mid-line
Consumer confidence index is lower than expected today: Act. 47.7 / Est. 53.5 / Pre. 53.1
SPY broke the weak support at mid-channel today even though it was mostly a side way day. The stronger support is the bottom channel at 105.5 - 106, which could easily be touched with another day like today. We should find out if the channel holds by the end of this week.
Last 3 days drop in the US market corrected all the gains in EUR/USD pair from two weeks ago to the support of 1.4800. It will be interesting to see how it fairs with spy's bottom channel.
Visa has come down to mid-line support of 73 from high of 77. It is perceivable that it will bounce off this level similar to the dip in late July, early August. It seems to sag after the initial pop, then slowly trend upward again. We will see if it will hold the mid-line support tomorrow.
On the personal side:
I had another drawdown on Friday around $900. I over scalped FAS. Monday I had a $1200 loss, and today, Tuesday, I added $2200 to the streak. Both of my trading accounts are locked under day trade.
I won't be able to trade unless I deposit money to bring account back to day trade limit or I can trade FX to gain the losses back. I don't want to deposit additional funds, because I don't think that will fix things in the big picture.
So I will sit on my hands most of the time until I see clarity in FX trades. My lot size is 100k, which can be hazardous if I don't enforce stop loss well. I've lost plenty in FX with that lot size. 20k is the minimum lot size, it eats up commission pretty easily. I will reduce it to 60k to see how it works out.
I know I should monitor my thoughts/emotions during trading hour, but it is so easily forgotten when push comes to shove. It's like a chemical kicks in the brain, small doses of adrenaline rushed into the hands. Fear and greed in a split second caused me fortunes.
Starting tomorrow, I will really slow down (kinda have to...) before more damage is done.
The only "good" trade that worth mentioning is the Visa call on Oct.6 with entry of 68.25. It reached target of 75+ almost 1 week later. I exited near top at 68.25 on Oct.21 when spy dropped at the end of the day and V formed a shooting star. This trade worked because There was little emotion involved. The reasons for entry and exit were pure technical. I should do this kind of trades more, and find them on shorter time scales.
- the journey goes on ...
Consumer confidence index is lower than expected today: Act. 47.7 / Est. 53.5 / Pre. 53.1
SPY broke the weak support at mid-channel today even though it was mostly a side way day. The stronger support is the bottom channel at 105.5 - 106, which could easily be touched with another day like today. We should find out if the channel holds by the end of this week.
Last 3 days drop in the US market corrected all the gains in EUR/USD pair from two weeks ago to the support of 1.4800. It will be interesting to see how it fairs with spy's bottom channel.
Visa has come down to mid-line support of 73 from high of 77. It is perceivable that it will bounce off this level similar to the dip in late July, early August. It seems to sag after the initial pop, then slowly trend upward again. We will see if it will hold the mid-line support tomorrow.
On the personal side:
I had another drawdown on Friday around $900. I over scalped FAS. Monday I had a $1200 loss, and today, Tuesday, I added $2200 to the streak. Both of my trading accounts are locked under day trade.
I won't be able to trade unless I deposit money to bring account back to day trade limit or I can trade FX to gain the losses back. I don't want to deposit additional funds, because I don't think that will fix things in the big picture.
So I will sit on my hands most of the time until I see clarity in FX trades. My lot size is 100k, which can be hazardous if I don't enforce stop loss well. I've lost plenty in FX with that lot size. 20k is the minimum lot size, it eats up commission pretty easily. I will reduce it to 60k to see how it works out.
I know I should monitor my thoughts/emotions during trading hour, but it is so easily forgotten when push comes to shove. It's like a chemical kicks in the brain, small doses of adrenaline rushed into the hands. Fear and greed in a split second caused me fortunes.
Starting tomorrow, I will really slow down (kinda have to...) before more damage is done.
The only "good" trade that worth mentioning is the Visa call on Oct.6 with entry of 68.25. It reached target of 75+ almost 1 week later. I exited near top at 68.25 on Oct.21 when spy dropped at the end of the day and V formed a shooting star. This trade worked because There was little emotion involved. The reasons for entry and exit were pure technical. I should do this kind of trades more, and find them on shorter time scales.
- the journey goes on ...
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
First big draw down of Oct.
SPY: O - 109.04 / H - 110.31 / L - 108.15 / C -108.23 / TA - overbought, turning over
For the first 3 weeks of Oct., my trades have been about even. My gain was actually slightly more. Today, I was up $100 until the last 40 minutes when s&p is tanking to the floor. I attempted in reverse scalping FAS and suffered nearly 2k loss. I had a chance to break even on the trade at the first rebound, but emotion took over and I didn't exit completely, and continued the strategy.
What may I learn from this experience?
-Did not have a clue on the Distance and Duration of the move.
-Near end of day, should have been more cautious.
-Stop going in blindly and against the move, instead go with the trend on confirmations of volume and direction.
-Got a bit lazy in studying lately
Positive experience I noticed:
-Break out and trend lines definitely increased the odds of a strategy. It helps to set stop loss too.
-The opportunity to take a break, and write this note.
-The very sunny and cool weather here.
-The experiences that I am having.
For the first 3 weeks of Oct., my trades have been about even. My gain was actually slightly more. Today, I was up $100 until the last 40 minutes when s&p is tanking to the floor. I attempted in reverse scalping FAS and suffered nearly 2k loss. I had a chance to break even on the trade at the first rebound, but emotion took over and I didn't exit completely, and continued the strategy.
What may I learn from this experience?
-Did not have a clue on the Distance and Duration of the move.
-Near end of day, should have been more cautious.
-Stop going in blindly and against the move, instead go with the trend on confirmations of volume and direction.
-Got a bit lazy in studying lately
Positive experience I noticed:
-Break out and trend lines definitely increased the odds of a strategy. It helps to set stop loss too.
-The opportunity to take a break, and write this note.
-The very sunny and cool weather here.
-The experiences that I am having.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Week in review - End of Sep. 09
Met my profit goal today, and was relieved that there were chances to sell RIMM and SPY call with tiny profit this week, considering they were negative for a few days.
We are at a critical point today with spy dropped down to 103, which is at the trend line from Oct. 14, 2008. Tomorrow's employment report will most likely determine whether this will be a support or a break down. I might try a spy 104 c and 102 p straddle just to test it out. Might also buy some VIXX if there's downward momentum.
This week's P/L run down so far:
Mon: $662 (gained mostly from exiting AZO and TRIT swings)
Tue: -$885 (big loss in MNKD and SNDA -- see foot notes)
Wed: -$260 (loss in various stops, should have let CTRP run on profit that day)
Thu: $507 (more details to follow...)
It looks like tomorrow will decide whether this week will be a profitable week. :)
Notes:
MNKD - momentum play gone wrong by doing DD multiple times. Should cut loss quick in this kind of play... remember, first chance to cut loss yields the least loss (-20 vs -730).
SNDA - again, DD instead of taking first loss led to larger loss.
We are at a critical point today with spy dropped down to 103, which is at the trend line from Oct. 14, 2008. Tomorrow's employment report will most likely determine whether this will be a support or a break down. I might try a spy 104 c and 102 p straddle just to test it out. Might also buy some VIXX if there's downward momentum.
This week's P/L run down so far:
Mon: $662 (gained mostly from exiting AZO and TRIT swings)
Tue: -$885 (big loss in MNKD and SNDA -- see foot notes)
Wed: -$260 (loss in various stops, should have let CTRP run on profit that day)
Thu: $507 (more details to follow...)
It looks like tomorrow will decide whether this week will be a profitable week. :)
Notes:
MNKD - momentum play gone wrong by doing DD multiple times. Should cut loss quick in this kind of play... remember, first chance to cut loss yields the least loss (-20 vs -730).
SNDA - again, DD instead of taking first loss led to larger loss.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
A good week?
Here's my daily profit/loss for this week:
MON: $450
TUE: $100
WED: -$400
THU: $750
FRI: $25
So overall, I had a profitable week, which is a pleasant change for my record in the recent months. I did ran into day trading limit issue on my DT account, which forced me to switch over to my swing account to day trade.
MON: $450
TUE: $100
WED: -$400
THU: $750
FRI: $25
So overall, I had a profitable week, which is a pleasant change for my record in the recent months. I did ran into day trading limit issue on my DT account, which forced me to switch over to my swing account to day trade.
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